Stock markets and major commodities such as oil and gold seem to get most of the mainstream financial market headlines these days. Despite being the largest and most liquid trading markets in the world, the global currency markets do not get nearly the same attention. There are a few key reasons for this – the lack of a true central currency exchange, the relatively small daily price changes and the seemingly opaque reasons for changes in currencies.
However, the value of our nation’s currency can have a strong effect on the stock market and the commodities markets as well as have a real effect on our lives. Our currency’s value is a basic fundamental component of our wealth and our ability to purchase goods – especially in this age of globalization. If we pay attention to the currency market trends, we can benefit by using this information to plan ahead for a vacation, search out deals on foreign products or take this knowledge into account when making our investment decisions.
1. Interest Rates
The first factor contributing to the general strength or weakness of a currency is a country’s interest rate. Simply, interest rates are the amount it costs to borrow money. The interest rate level is moved higher or lower by a country’s central bank to either stimulate or slow down an economy. Higher interest rates impose a more costly fee to borrow money while lower interest rates lessen the fee and usually spur more borrowing (or access to cheap credit) in an economy.
When it comes to demand for a particular currency, however, the higher the interest rate usually means the higher the demand for that currency. Lower interest rates usually decrease the demand for a currency. The reason investors look to buy currencies with higher interest rates is it creates an additional rate of return on their currency exchange.
2. Inflation
Inflation is next in our economic factors list and is defined by the rise in prices of goods and services. When a product rises in price, it signals that there is an underlying demand for that product. Higher prices may not seem good to a consumer, but it is generally considered healthy for a country to have a moderate increase in inflation in a growing economy. Many central banks have a target inflation rate for their economy of around 2 percent a year.
When an economy sees too much inflation, the central bank will try to cool off rising prices and access to cheap credit with an increase in interest rates. This brings us back to number one in our list, where we see that higher interest rates make a currency more attractive. So in a growing economic environment, rising inflation rates will tend to increase expectations that interest rates will rise, which will in turn make traders have a positive outlook for the rise of the currency.
3. Economic Growth
The strength of an economy can go a long way to boosting the strength of the nation’s currency. A strong growth rate in a country will see a growing demand for products and services with better job prospects for workers as well as being an attractive destination for capital and investments.
The easiest way to watch a country’s economic standing is to pay attention to the gross domestic product (GDP). A strong GDP reading is growth of 3 percent or more in many cases, while growth close to zero percent or a negative reading shows that the economy could be headed for a recession. A typical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.